Global R&D efforts are being focused on lithium-ion batteries as well as a number of other technologies. While lithium-ion is the leading technology being commercialized, individual demand applications that require specific battery requirements (power-to-weight ratio, charge capacity, cycle life, battery cost etc) could see other technologies increasing penetration. While the power-to-weight ratio of lithium-ion makes it a clear leader in EV, other battery technologies could be viable alternatives for applications like energy storage.
At present, there several substitution technologies with the potential to disrupt the lithium-ion batteries industry (“LiB”). The main and most advanced (in terms of infrastructure already in place) competing substitute is hydrogen fuel cell technology applicable to the new energy vehicle (“EV”) passenger and commercial markets.
It is estimated that by 2025, hydrogen fuel cell technology batteries sold into the China EV market alone will reach 50,000 units, more than 1.3 million vehicles in 2035, and 5 million vehicles in 2050. Assuming a battery power stack for each fuel cell vehicle equates to 60kW, it is estimated that the market value of fuel cell EVs sold in China will reach US$2.05 billion by 2025, US$10.2 billion in 2035, and US$14 billion in 2050.
From a global perspective, based on current and estimated production volumes it is estimated that by 2030 hydrogen fuel cell technology used in global EV production will have accumulated sales totalling more than 10.3 million vehicles, mostly coming from Japan (800k), South Korea (1.8M), Europe (3.6M), USA (3M) and China (1M), equalling to the entire fuel cell EV market to having an economic output value exceeding US$514 billion, of which China’s market share will be approximately US$50 billion.
Component providers and vertically integrated companies are continually increasing the penetration rate of hydrogen fuel cell technology industry into the EV market by (1.) Continued improvements in product performance, (2.) Processing method efficiencies and (3.) Cost reductions in raw materials.
- Types of hydrogen fuel cell technology
- Processing methods
- Product specifications
- Pricing methods
- Competitive landscape (companies),
- Market (supply and demand),
- Government intervention (environmental protection, subsidy policies),
- Current and future industry trends.